Florent Bax vs Gonzalo Bueno prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Gonzalo Bueno 0 - Florent Bax 0. Florent Bax is favored with a 55.2% win probability.
Gonzalo Bueno
1565
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Florent Bax
1517
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Gonzalo BuenoFlorent Bax
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,384 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Florent Bax
Gonzalo Bueno
Gonzalo Bueno leads by 48 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Florent Bax SPW
63.0%
Below tour avg
Gonzalo Bueno SPW
60.9%
Below tour avg
● Florent Bax has a slight serve edge (+2.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Florent Bax ML
+101
Model: 55%
Edge: +5.4%
Gonzalo Bueno ML
-118
Model: 45%
Edge: -9.3%
Model Projection
Florent Bax ML +101 · +5.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Gonzalo Bueno has a moderate 48-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Florent Bax has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Florent Bax 55.2%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →