Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Dalibor Svrcina prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Dalibor Svrcina 0 - Frederico Ferreira Silva 0. Frederico Ferreira Silva is favored with a 92.2% win probability.
Dalibor Svrcina
1505
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Frederico Ferreira Silva
1500
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Dalibor SvrcinaFrederico Ferreira Silva
Hard
Surface
ATP Challenger Ostrava - R16
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.9% (1,386 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Challenger Ostrava - R16
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Frederico Ferreira Silva
Dalibor Svrcina
Dalibor Svrcina leads by 4 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Frederico Ferreira Silva SPW
67.7%
Above tour avg
Dalibor Svrcina SPW
51.2%
Below tour avg
● Frederico Ferreira Silva has a significant serve advantage (+16.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Frederico Ferreira Silva ML
+279
Model: 92%
Edge: +65.8%
Dalibor Svrcina ML
-334
Model: 8%
Edge: -69.1%
Model Projection
Frederico Ferreira Silva ML +279 · +65.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (4-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Frederico Ferreira Silva has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Frederico Ferreira Silva at 92%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Frederico Ferreira Silva 92.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →