Gerard Campana Lee vs Edas Butvilas prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Edas Butvilas 0 - Gerard Campana Lee 0. Edas Butvilas is favored with a 54.6% win probability.
Edas Butvilas
1561
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Gerard Campana Lee
1479
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Edas ButvilasGerard Campana Lee
Hard
Surface
ATP Challenger Shymkent - R16
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.9% (1,374 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Challenger Shymkent - R16
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Gerard Campana Lee
Edas Butvilas
Edas Butvilas leads by 83 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Gerard Campana Lee SPW
63.0%
Below tour avg
Edas Butvilas SPW
63.2%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Gerard Campana Lee ML
+320
Model: 45%
Edge: +21.6%
Edas Butvilas ML
-402
Model: 55%
Edge: -25.5%
Model Projection
Gerard Campana Lee ML +320 · +21.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Edas Butvilas has a moderate 83-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Edas Butvilas has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Edas Butvilas 54.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →