Guy Den Ouden vs Dalibor Svrcina prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Dalibor Svrcina 0 - Guy Den Ouden 0. Guy Den Ouden is favored with a 63.6% win probability.
Dalibor Svrcina
1478
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Guy Den Ouden
1615
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Dalibor SvrcinaGuy Den Ouden
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.1% (2,384 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Guy Den Ouden
Dalibor Svrcina
Guy Den Ouden leads by 138 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Guy Den Ouden SPW
61.2%
Below tour avg
Dalibor Svrcina SPW
56.5%
Below tour avg
● Guy Den Ouden has a significant serve advantage (+4.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Guy Den Ouden ML
+251
Model: 64%
Edge: +35.1%
Dalibor Svrcina ML
-307
Model: 36%
Edge: -39.0%
Model Projection
Guy Den Ouden ML +251 · +35.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Guy Den Ouden holds a commanding 138-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Guy Den Ouden has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Guy Den Ouden 63.6%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →