Hamish Stewart vs Eliakim Coulibaly prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Eliakim Coulibaly 0 - Hamish Stewart 0. Hamish Stewart is favored with a 52.5% win probability.
Eliakim Coulibaly
1596
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Hamish Stewart
1456
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Eliakim CoulibalyHamish Stewart
Hard
Surface
ATP Challenger Abidjan - QF
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.3% (1,414 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Challenger Abidjan - QF
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Hamish Stewart
Eliakim Coulibaly
Eliakim Coulibaly leads by 140 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Hamish Stewart SPW
66.5%
Above tour avg
Eliakim Coulibaly SPW
61.0%
Below tour avg
● Hamish Stewart has a significant serve advantage (+5.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Hamish Stewart ML
+149
Model: 52%
Edge: +12.4%
Eliakim Coulibaly ML
-172
Model: 47%
Edge: -15.8%
Model Projection
Hamish Stewart ML +149 · +12.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Eliakim Coulibaly holds a commanding 140-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Hamish Stewart has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hamish Stewart 52.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →