Jaime Faria vs Andrea Guerrieri prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Andrea Guerrieri 0 - Jaime Faria 0. Jaime Faria is favored with a 52.9% win probability.
Andrea Guerrieri
1465
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Jaime Faria
1474
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Andrea GuerrieriJaime Faria
Hard
Surface
ATP Challenger Mauthausen
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.2% (1,297 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Challenger Mauthausen
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Jaime Faria
Andrea Guerrieri
Jaime Faria leads by 9 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Jaime Faria SPW
59.2%
Below tour avg
Andrea Guerrieri SPW
58.2%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jaime Faria ML
-219
Model: 53%
Edge: -15.7%
Andrea Guerrieri ML
+188
Model: 47%
Edge: +12.4%
Model Projection
Andrea Guerrieri ML +188 · +12.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (9-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Jaime Faria has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jaime Faria 52.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →