Jaime Faria vs Martin Krumich prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Martin Krumich 0 - Jaime Faria 0. Jaime Faria is favored with a 92.3% win probability.
Martin Krumich
1467
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Jaime Faria
1474
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Martin KrumichJaime Faria
Hard
Surface
ATP Challenger Mauthausen - R16
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.4% (1,374 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Challenger Mauthausen - R16
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Jaime Faria
Martin Krumich
Jaime Faria leads by 6 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Jaime Faria SPW
63.4%
Below tour avg
Martin Krumich SPW
45.2%
Below tour avg
● Jaime Faria has a significant serve advantage (+18.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jaime Faria ML
-180
Model: 92%
Edge: +28.0%
Martin Krumich ML
+156
Model: 8%
Edge: -31.4%
Model Projection
Jaime Faria ML -180 · +28.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (6-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Jaime Faria has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Jaime Faria at 92%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jaime Faria 92.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →