Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Fils prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Arthur Fils 0 - Jiri Lehecka 0. Arthur Fils is favored with a 72.8% win probability.
Arthur Fils
1684
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Jiri Lehecka
1610
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Arthur FilsJiri Lehecka
Clay
Surface
ATP Madrid Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.4% (1,363 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Madrid Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Jiri Lehecka
Arthur Fils
Arthur Fils leads by 74 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Jiri Lehecka SPW
65.4%
Above tour avg
Arthur Fils SPW
70.4%
Above tour avg
● Arthur Fils has a significant serve advantage (+5.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jiri Lehecka ML
+158
Model: 27%
Edge: -11.6%
Arthur Fils ML
-170
Model: 73%
Edge: +9.9%
Model Projection
Arthur Fils ML -170 · +9.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Arthur Fils has a moderate 74-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Arthur Fils has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Arthur Fils at 73%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arthur Fils 72.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →