Lisa Pigato vs Aliona Falei prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Aliona Falei 0 - Lisa Pigato 0. Lisa Pigato is favored with a 54.7% win probability.
Aliona Falei
1412
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Lisa Pigato
1453
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Aliona FaleiLisa Pigato
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,384 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Lisa Pigato
Aliona Falei
Lisa Pigato leads by 41 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Lisa Pigato SPW
55.2%
Below tour avg
Aliona Falei SPW
55.3%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Lisa Pigato ML
-311
Model: 55%
Edge: -21.0%
Aliona Falei ML
+255
Model: 45%
Edge: +17.2%
Model Projection
Aliona Falei ML +255 · +17.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Lisa Pigato has a moderate 41-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Aliona Falei has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Lisa Pigato 54.7%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →