Mai Hontama vs Sofia Costoulas prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Sofia Costoulas 0 - Mai Hontama 0. Sofia Costoulas is favored with a 59.0% win probability.
Sofia Costoulas
1540
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Mai Hontama
1476
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Sofia CostoulasMai Hontama
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.4% (2,644 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Mai Hontama
Sofia Costoulas
Sofia Costoulas leads by 65 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Mai Hontama SPW
53.8%
Below tour avg
Sofia Costoulas SPW
56.8%
Above tour avg
● Sofia Costoulas has a significant serve advantage (+3.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Mai Hontama ML
+226
Model: 41%
Edge: +10.4%
Sofia Costoulas ML
-280
Model: 59%
Edge: -14.7%
Model Projection
Mai Hontama ML +226 · +10.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Sofia Costoulas has a moderate 65-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Sofia Costoulas has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Sofia Costoulas 59.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →