Matilde Jorge vs Mary Stoiana prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mary Stoiana 0 - Matilde Jorge 0. Matilde Jorge is favored with a 51.3% win probability.
Mary Stoiana
1500
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Matilde Jorge
1500
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Mary StoianaMatilde Jorge
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.3% (2,644 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Matilde Jorge
Mary Stoiana
Matilde Jorge leads by 0 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Matilde Jorge SPW
56.5%
Above tour avg
Mary Stoiana SPW
55.9%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Matilde Jorge ML
+233
Model: 51%
Edge: +21.3%
Mary Stoiana ML
-289
Model: 49%
Edge: -25.6%
Model Projection
Matilde Jorge ML +233 · +21.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Matilde Jorge has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Matilde Jorge 51.3%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →