Mirra Andreeva vs Hailey Baptiste prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hailey Baptiste 0 - Mirra Andreeva 0. Mirra Andreeva is favored with a 63.7% win probability.
Hailey Baptiste
1521
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Mirra Andreeva
1811
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Hailey BaptisteMirra Andreeva
Clay
Surface
WTA Madrid Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.6% (1,386 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Madrid Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Mirra Andreeva
Hailey Baptiste
Mirra Andreeva leads by 290 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Mirra Andreeva SPW
56.8%
Above tour avg
Hailey Baptiste SPW
54.2%
Below tour avg
● Mirra Andreeva has a slight serve edge (+2.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Mirra Andreeva ML
-220
Model: 64%
Edge: -5.0%
Hailey Baptiste ML
+200
Model: 36%
Edge: +2.9%
Key Matchup Factors
- Mirra Andreeva holds a commanding 290-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Mirra Andreeva has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mirra Andreeva 63.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →