Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Marta Kostyuk 0 - Mirra Andreeva 0. Mirra Andreeva is favored with a 71.8% win probability.
Marta Kostyuk
1684
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Mirra Andreeva
1811
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Marta KostyukMirra Andreeva
Clay
Surface
Mutua Madrid Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.4% (1,401 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Mutua Madrid Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Mirra Andreeva
Marta Kostyuk
Mirra Andreeva leads by 127 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Mirra Andreeva SPW
55.6%
Below tour avg
Marta Kostyuk SPW
48.5%
Below tour avg
● Mirra Andreeva has a significant serve advantage (+7.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Mirra Andreeva ML
-140
Model: 72%
Edge: +13.5%
Marta Kostyuk ML
+115
Model: 28%
Edge: -18.3%
Model Projection
Mirra Andreeva ML -140 · +13.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Mirra Andreeva holds a commanding 127-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Mirra Andreeva has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Mirra Andreeva at 72%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mirra Andreeva 71.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →