Peyton Stearns vs Daria Kasatkina prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Daria Kasatkina 0 - Peyton Stearns 0. Daria Kasatkina is favored with a 63.5% win probability.
Daria Kasatkina
1768
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Peyton Stearns
1670
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Daria KasatkinaPeyton Stearns
Hard
Surface
Internationaux de Strasbourg presented by Mammotion
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.1% (2,384 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Internationaux de Strasbourg presented by Mammotion
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Peyton Stearns
Daria Kasatkina
Daria Kasatkina leads by 98 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Peyton Stearns SPW
54.9%
Below tour avg
Daria Kasatkina SPW
57.0%
Above tour avg
● Daria Kasatkina has a slight serve edge (+2.1%)
Key Matchup Factors
- Daria Kasatkina has a moderate 98-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Daria Kasatkina has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Daria Kasatkina 63.5%
--
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →