Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover prediction for July 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Carlos Sanchez Jover 0 - Roberto Carballes Baena 0. Carlos Sanchez Jover is favored with a 51.6% win probability.
Carlos Sanchez Jover
1520
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Roberto Carballes Baena
1450
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Carlos Sanchez JoverRoberto Carballes Baena
Hard
Surface
Bastad
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.9% (12,045 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Bastad
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Roberto Carballes Baena
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Carlos Sanchez Jover leads by 70 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Roberto Carballes Baena SPW
61.2%
Below tour avg
Carlos Sanchez Jover SPW
62.6%
Below tour avg
● Carlos Sanchez Jover has a slight serve edge (+1.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Roberto Carballes Baena ML
-459
Model: 48%
Edge: -33.7%
Carlos Sanchez Jover ML
+360
Model: 52%
Edge: +29.9%
Model Projection
Carlos Sanchez Jover ML +360 · +29.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Carlos Sanchez Jover has a moderate 70-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Carlos Sanchez Jover has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Carlos Sanchez Jover 51.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →