Sadio Doumbia / Fabien Reboul vs Benjamin Winter Lopez / Pablo Llamas Ruiz prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Benjamin Winter Lopez / Pablo Llamas Ruiz 0 - Sadio Doumbia / Fabien Reboul 0. Benjamin Winter Lopez / Pablo Llamas Ruiz is favored with a 52.0% win probability.
Benjamin Winter Lopez / Pablo Llamas Ruiz
1500
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Sadio Doumbia / Fabien Reboul
1500
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Benjamin Winter Lopez / Pablo Llamas RuizSadio Doumbia / Fabien Reboul
Clay
Surface
ATP Madrid - Doubles
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.4% (1,363 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Madrid - Doubles
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Sadio Doumbia / Fabien Reboul
Benjamin Winter Lopez / Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Sadio Doumbia / Fabien Reboul leads by 0 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Sadio Doumbia / Fabien Reboul SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
Benjamin Winter Lopez / Pablo Llamas Ruiz SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Sadio Doumbia / Fabien Reboul ML
-555
Model: 48%
Edge: -36.8%
Benjamin Winter Lopez / Pablo Llamas Ruiz ML
+388
Model: 52%
Edge: +31.5%
Model Projection
Benjamin Winter Lopez / Pablo Llamas Ruiz ML +388 · +31.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Benjamin Winter Lopez / Pablo Llamas Ruiz has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Benjamin Winter Lopez / Pablo Llamas Ruiz 52.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →