Sofia Costoulas vs Leolia Jeanjean prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Leolia Jeanjean 0 - Sofia Costoulas 0. Sofia Costoulas is favored with a 86.5% win probability.
Leolia Jeanjean
1518
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Sofia Costoulas
1577
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Leolia JeanjeanSofia Costoulas
Hard
Surface
Saint-Malo
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.3% (1,363 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Saint-Malo
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Sofia Costoulas
Leolia Jeanjean
Sofia Costoulas leads by 59 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Sofia Costoulas SPW
61.0%
Above tour avg
Leolia Jeanjean SPW
53.0%
Below tour avg
● Sofia Costoulas has a significant serve advantage (+8.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Sofia Costoulas ML
+175
Model: 86%
Edge: +50.2%
Leolia Jeanjean ML
-230
Model: 14%
Edge: -56.2%
Model Projection
Sofia Costoulas ML +175 · +50.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Sofia Costoulas has a moderate 59-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Sofia Costoulas has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Sofia Costoulas at 86%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Sofia Costoulas 86.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →