Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Andrea Pellegrino prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Andrea Pellegrino 0 - Stefanos Sakellaridis 0. Andrea Pellegrino is favored with a 50.5% win probability.
Andrea Pellegrino
1516
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Stefanos Sakellaridis
1433
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Andrea PellegrinoStefanos Sakellaridis
Hard
Surface
ATP Challenger Cagliari
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (1,330 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Challenger Cagliari
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Stefanos Sakellaridis
Andrea Pellegrino
Andrea Pellegrino leads by 83 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Stefanos Sakellaridis SPW
63.0%
Below tour avg
Andrea Pellegrino SPW
62.7%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Stefanos Sakellaridis ML
-147
Model: 50%
Edge: -10.0%
Andrea Pellegrino ML
+126
Model: 50%
Edge: +6.3%
Model Projection
Andrea Pellegrino ML +126 · +6.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Andrea Pellegrino has a moderate 83-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Stefanos Sakellaridis has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Andrea Pellegrino 50.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →