Tournament Outlook
1953
Elo rating
3.1%
Champion
7.4%
Reach final
16.3%
Reach semis
35.6%
Reach quarters
Mexico Match Predictions & Results
| Date | Stage | Opponent | Match Prediction | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | First Stage | vs South Africa | South Africa vs Mexico | W 2–0 |
| 2026-06-18 | First Stage | vs South Korea | South Korea vs Mexico | W 1–0 |
| 2026-06-24 | First Stage | @ Czech Republic | Mexico vs Czech Republic | W 3–0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Round of 32 | vs Ecuador | Ecuador vs Mexico | W 2–0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Round of 16 | vs England | England vs Mexico | L 2–3 |
How these projections are generated: every Mexico fixture is modeled with an
Elo-seeded Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson engine,
then the full 48-team bracket is Monte Carlo simulated (10,000 runs) for champion and
advancement odds. Probabilities are Bayesian-calibrated.
Tournament hub → ·
How the Soccer model works → ·
Full methodology →