World Cup 2026 · Team

England World Cup 2026 Projections

Monte Carlo tournament simulation · 10,000 bracket runs · updated daily

Eliminated — Semi-final

Tournament Outlook

2032
Elo rating
3.5%
Champion
7.3%
Reach final
14.6%
Reach semis
27.9%
Reach quarters

England Match Predictions & Results

DateStageOpponentMatch PredictionResult
2026-06-17First Stagevs CroatiaCroatia vs EnglandW 4–2
2026-06-23First Stagevs GhanaGhana vs EnglandD 0–0
2026-06-27First Stage@ PanamaEngland vs PanamaW 2–0
2026-07-01Round of 32vs DR CongoDR Congo vs EnglandW 2–1
2026-07-05Round of 16@ MexicoEngland vs MexicoW 3–2
2026-07-11Quarter-final@ NorwayEngland vs NorwayW 2–1
2026-07-15Semi-finalvs ArgentinaArgentina vs EnglandL 1–2
2026-07-18Bronze final@ FranceEngland vs FrancePreview →
How these projections are generated: every England fixture is modeled with an Elo-seeded Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson engine, then the full 48-team bracket is Monte Carlo simulated (10,000 runs) for champion and advancement odds. Probabilities are Bayesian-calibrated. Tournament hub → · How the Soccer model works → · Full methodology →