World Cup 2026 · Team

Norway World Cup 2026 Projections

Monte Carlo tournament simulation · 10,000 bracket runs · updated daily

Eliminated — Quarter-final

Tournament Outlook

1876
Elo rating
0.8%
Champion
2.3%
Reach final
6.1%
Reach semis
15.3%
Reach quarters

Norway Match Predictions & Results

DateStageOpponentMatch PredictionResult
2026-06-16First Stage@ IraqNorway vs IraqW 4–1
2026-06-22First Stagevs SenegalSenegal vs NorwayW 3–2
2026-06-26First Stagevs FranceFrance vs NorwayL 1–4
2026-06-30Round of 32@ Ivory CoastNorway vs Ivory CoastW 2–1
2026-07-05Round of 16@ BrazilNorway vs BrazilW 2–1
2026-07-11Quarter-finalvs EnglandEngland vs NorwayL 1–2
How these projections are generated: every Norway fixture is modeled with an Elo-seeded Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson engine, then the full 48-team bracket is Monte Carlo simulated (10,000 runs) for champion and advancement odds. Probabilities are Bayesian-calibrated. Tournament hub → · How the Soccer model works → · Full methodology →