Tournament Outlook
1876
Elo rating
0.8%
Champion
2.3%
Reach final
6.1%
Reach semis
15.3%
Reach quarters
Norway Match Predictions & Results
| Date | Stage | Opponent | Match Prediction | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | First Stage | @ Iraq | Norway vs Iraq | W 4–1 |
| 2026-06-22 | First Stage | vs Senegal | Senegal vs Norway | W 3–2 |
| 2026-06-26 | First Stage | vs France | France vs Norway | L 1–4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Round of 32 | @ Ivory Coast | Norway vs Ivory Coast | W 2–1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Round of 16 | @ Brazil | Norway vs Brazil | W 2–1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Quarter-final | vs England | England vs Norway | L 1–2 |
How these projections are generated: every Norway fixture is modeled with an
Elo-seeded Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson engine,
then the full 48-team bracket is Monte Carlo simulated (10,000 runs) for champion and
advancement odds. Probabilities are Bayesian-calibrated.
Tournament hub → ·
How the Soccer model works → ·
Full methodology →