Tournament Outlook
2129
Elo rating
8.2%
Champion
14.9%
Reach final
26.6%
Reach semis
43.4%
Reach quarters
France Match Predictions & Results
| Date | Stage | Opponent | Match Prediction | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | First Stage | vs Senegal | Senegal vs France | W 3–1 |
| 2026-06-22 | First Stage | vs Iraq | Iraq vs France | W 3–0 |
| 2026-06-26 | First Stage | @ Norway | France vs Norway | W 4–1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Round of 32 | vs Sweden | Sweden vs France | W 3–0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Round of 16 | @ Paraguay | France vs Paraguay | W 1–0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Quarter-final | vs Morocco | Morocco vs France | W 2–0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Semi-final | vs Spain | Spain vs France | L 0–2 |
| 2026-07-18 | Bronze final | vs England | England vs France | Preview → |
How these projections are generated: every France fixture is modeled with an
Elo-seeded Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson engine,
then the full 48-team bracket is Monte Carlo simulated (10,000 runs) for champion and
advancement odds. Probabilities are Bayesian-calibrated.
Tournament hub → ·
How the Soccer model works → ·
Full methodology →