World Cup 2026 · Team

Spain World Cup 2026 Projections

Monte Carlo tournament simulation · 10,000 bracket runs · updated daily

Active — next: Final vs Argentina (2026-07-19)

Tournament Outlook

2204
Elo rating
30.2%
Champion
39.7%
Reach final
51.4%
Reach semis
61.3%
Reach quarters

Spain Match Predictions & Results

DateStageOpponentMatch PredictionResult
2026-06-15First Stagevs Cape VerdeCape Verde vs SpainD 0–0
2026-06-21First Stagevs Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia vs SpainW 4–0
2026-06-26First Stage@ UruguaySpain vs UruguayW 1–0
2026-07-02Round of 32vs AustriaAustria vs SpainW 3–0
2026-07-06Round of 16@ PortugalSpain vs PortugalW 1–0
2026-07-10Quarter-finalvs BelgiumBelgium vs SpainW 2–1
2026-07-14Semi-final@ FranceSpain vs FranceW 2–0
2026-07-19Finalvs ArgentinaArgentina vs SpainPreview →
How these projections are generated: every Spain fixture is modeled with an Elo-seeded Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson engine, then the full 48-team bracket is Monte Carlo simulated (10,000 runs) for champion and advancement odds. Probabilities are Bayesian-calibrated. Tournament hub → · How the Soccer model works → · Full methodology →