World Cup 2026 · Team

Croatia World Cup 2026 Projections

Monte Carlo tournament simulation · 10,000 bracket runs · updated daily

Eliminated — Round of 32

Tournament Outlook

1882
Elo rating
0.9%
Champion
2.6%
Reach final
6.5%
Reach semis
14.6%
Reach quarters

Croatia Match Predictions & Results

DateStageOpponentMatch PredictionResult
2026-06-17First Stage@ EnglandCroatia vs EnglandL 2–4
2026-06-23First Stage@ PanamaCroatia vs PanamaW 1–0
2026-06-27First Stagevs GhanaGhana vs CroatiaW 2–1
2026-07-02Round of 32@ PortugalCroatia vs PortugalL 1–2
How these projections are generated: every Croatia fixture is modeled with an Elo-seeded Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson engine, then the full 48-team bracket is Monte Carlo simulated (10,000 runs) for champion and advancement odds. Probabilities are Bayesian-calibrated. Tournament hub → · How the Soccer model works → · Full methodology →