Tournament Outlook
1882
Elo rating
0.9%
Champion
2.6%
Reach final
6.5%
Reach semis
14.6%
Reach quarters
Croatia Match Predictions & Results
| Date | Stage | Opponent | Match Prediction | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | First Stage | @ England | Croatia vs England | L 2–4 |
| 2026-06-23 | First Stage | @ Panama | Croatia vs Panama | W 1–0 |
| 2026-06-27 | First Stage | vs Ghana | Ghana vs Croatia | W 2–1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Round of 32 | @ Portugal | Croatia vs Portugal | L 1–2 |
How these projections are generated: every Croatia fixture is modeled with an
Elo-seeded Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson engine,
then the full 48-team bracket is Monte Carlo simulated (10,000 runs) for champion and
advancement odds. Probabilities are Bayesian-calibrated.
Tournament hub → ·
How the Soccer model works → ·
Full methodology →