Tournament Outlook
1978
Elo rating
2.2%
Champion
5.3%
Reach final
12.0%
Reach semis
24.7%
Reach quarters
Netherlands Match Predictions & Results
| Date | Stage | Opponent | Match Prediction | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | First Stage | vs Japan | Japan vs Netherlands | D 2–2 |
| 2026-06-20 | First Stage | vs Sweden | Sweden vs Netherlands | W 5–1 |
| 2026-06-25 | First Stage | @ Tunisia | Netherlands vs Tunisia | W 3–1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Round of 32 | vs Morocco | Morocco vs Netherlands | D 1–1 |
How these projections are generated: every Netherlands fixture is modeled with an
Elo-seeded Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson engine,
then the full 48-team bracket is Monte Carlo simulated (10,000 runs) for champion and
advancement odds. Probabilities are Bayesian-calibrated.
Tournament hub → ·
How the Soccer model works → ·
Full methodology →