Tournament Outlook
2013
Elo rating
3.0%
Champion
6.7%
Reach final
14.1%
Reach semis
27.5%
Reach quarters
Japan Match Predictions & Results
| Date | Stage | Opponent | Match Prediction | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | First Stage | @ Netherlands | Japan vs Netherlands | D 2–2 |
| 2026-06-20 | First Stage | @ Tunisia | Japan vs Tunisia | FT |
| 2026-06-25 | First Stage | vs Sweden | Sweden vs Japan | D 1–1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Round of 32 | @ Brazil | Japan vs Brazil | L 1–2 |
How these projections are generated: every Japan fixture is modeled with an
Elo-seeded Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson engine,
then the full 48-team bracket is Monte Carlo simulated (10,000 runs) for champion and
advancement odds. Probabilities are Bayesian-calibrated.
Tournament hub → ·
How the Soccer model works → ·
Full methodology →