PGA Tour Golf

Cantlay, Patrick vs Matsuyama, Hideki Prediction

July 28, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Cantlay, Patrick vs Matsuyama, Hideki prediction for July 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Matsuyama, Hideki 68 - Cantlay, Patrick 64. Cantlay, Patrick is favored with a 57.0% win probability. The spread is 0.22.

Matsuyama, Hideki
+1.22
Strokes Gained / Round
VS H2H • Rocket Classic
Cantlay, Patrick
+1.43
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
43.0%
57.0%
Matsuyama, HidekiCantlay, Patrick
-115
Best Odds

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

Cantlay, Patrick
576471
Matsuyama, Hideki
616875

Tournament Context

Event
Rocket Classic
Course
Detroit Golf Club
Field
147 players

Model Edge & Sizing

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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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