Castillo, Ricky vs Stevens, Sam prediction for August 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Stevens, Sam 0 - Castillo, Ricky 43. Castillo, Ricky is favored with a 56.8% win probability. The spread is 0.35.
Stevens, Sam
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • FedEx St. Jude Championship
Castillo, Ricky
+0.39
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Stevens, SamCastillo, Ricky
-117
Best Odds
Tournament Context
Event
FedEx St. Jude Championship
Course
TPC Southwind
Field
69 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
100°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Golf 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Golf 2026 season report card.