Ghim, Doug vs Cole, Eric prediction for July 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Cole, Eric 104 - Ghim, Doug 93. Ghim, Doug is favored with a 58.7% win probability. The spread is -0.29.
Cole, Eric
+0.67
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Genesis Scottish Open
Ghim, Doug
+0.62
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Cole, EricGhim, Doug
+100
Best Odds
+17.4%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Ghim, Doug
8693100
Cole, Eric
97104111
Tournament Context
Event
Genesis Scottish Open
Course
The Renaissance Club
Field
156 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
68°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Ghim, Doug
Strokes Gained
+0.62/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.065 SG adj
Expected Finish
93th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Ghim, Doug
+0.62 SG
EF 93th
Skill Gap
-0.29 SG/round
tight edge for Cole, Eric
Cole, Eric
+0.67 SG
EF 104th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.7%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+17.4%
Ghim, Doug vs Cole, Eric: Model gives Ghim, Doug 58.7% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+17.4% edge). Skill advantage: -0.29 SG/round. Expected finish: 93.
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Model gives Ghim 58.6% vs 50.0% implied (17.1% edge); Ghim's better course positioning (EF 91.9 vs Cole likely 92-95) combined with +0.065 course fit and SG alignment creates solid ELITE edge.
Key Factors
- 17.1% edge: 58.6% model vs 50.0% implied
- Course fit +0.065 for Ghim (modest but consistent with European player patterns)
- EF 91.9 for Ghim shows better positioning than Cole's projected ~93-95
- SG total 0.617 for Ghim vs 0.907 for Cole shows Cole has higher overall skill, but Ghim better positioned here
- FanDuel +100 = 50% implied, free edge
Risk Factors
- Cole has higher absolute skill (0.907 vs 0.617 SG total) — if standard conditions, Cole favored
- Both likely to make cut and compete; variance comes down to final 18 holes
- Course fit edge is modest (+0.065) — small sample noise possible
ELITE EDGECOURSE FIT ADVANTAGEPLUS ODDS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ghim, Doug 58.7%
+17.4 pts
Spread
-0.3
+17.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →