Reed, Patrick vs Cauley, Bud prediction for July 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Cauley, Bud 96 - Reed, Patrick 95. Reed, Patrick is favored with a 54.7% win probability. The spread is -0.22.
Cauley, Bud
+0.74
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Genesis Scottish Open
Reed, Patrick
+0.80
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Cauley, BudReed, Patrick
+115
Best Odds
+17.6%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Reed, Patrick
8895102
Cauley, Bud
8996103
Tournament Context
Event
Genesis Scottish Open
Course
The Renaissance Club
Field
156 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
68°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Reed, Patrick
Strokes Gained
+0.80/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.241 SG adj
Expected Finish
95th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Reed, Patrick
+0.80 SG
EF 95th
Skill Gap
-0.22 SG/round
tight edge for Cauley, Bud
Cauley, Bud
+0.74 SG
EF 96th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.7%
Books Say
46.5%
Edge
+17.6%
Reed, Patrick vs Cauley, Bud: Model gives Reed, Patrick 54.7% win probability vs 46.5% implied (+17.6% edge). Skill advantage: -0.22 SG/round. Expected finish: 95.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Reed, Patrick 54.7%
+17.6 pts
Spread
-0.2
+17.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →