McCarty, Matt vs Castillo, Ricky prediction for July 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Castillo, Ricky 93 - McCarty, Matt 95. McCarty, Matt is favored with a 58.2% win probability. The spread is 0.18.
Castillo, Ricky
+0.27
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Rocket Classic
McCarty, Matt
+0.45
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Castillo, RickyMcCarty, Matt
-102
Best Odds
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
McCarty, Matt
8895102
Castillo, Ricky
8693100
Tournament Context
Event
Rocket Classic
Course
Detroit Golf Club
Field
147 players
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0
Model 57.4% vs market 50.5% (+13.7% edge); McCarty has +0.18 SG skill edge with neutral course fit (-0.24); edge is modest but skill-driven.
Key Factors
- Skill differential: +0.18 SG/round (moderate edge)
- Course fit: -0.24 for McCarty (headwind)
- Expected finish: 96 (mid-field)
- Model edge: +13.7% at -102 market
- SG total: 0.449 (solid mid-field player)
Risk Factors
- Course fit headwind (-0.24) reduces net advantage despite skill edge
- Expected finish (96) suggests both are mid-tier, limiting edge clarity
- The -0.24 course fit seems substantial — need to verify McCarty's Detroit performance history
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →