Scheffler, Scottie vs McIlroy, Rory prediction for August 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects McIlroy, Rory 7 - Scheffler, Scottie 4. Scheffler, Scottie is favored with a 71.1% win probability. Scheffler, Scottie wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The spread is 1.0.
McIlroy, Rory
+1.80
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • TOUR Championship
Scheffler, Scottie
+2.79
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
McIlroy, RoryScheffler, Scottie
-141
Best Odds
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Scheffler, Scottie
0411
McIlroy, Rory
0714
Tournament Context
Event
TOUR Championship
Course
East Lake GC
Field
29 players
Wind
9 mph
Temp
95°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Scheffler, Scottie
Strokes Gained
+2.79/round
Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.124 SG adj
Expected Finish
4th / 29
Matchup Analysis
Scheffler, Scottie
+2.79 SG
EF 4th
Skill Gap
+1.00 SG/round
large skill advantage for Scheffler, Scottie
McIlroy, Rory
+1.80 SG
EF 7th · World Class
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded GOLF 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the GOLF 2026 season report card.