PGA Tour Golf

Wise, Aaron vs Hadwin, Adam Prediction

September 17, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Wise, Aaron vs Hadwin, Adam prediction for September 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hadwin, Adam 31 - Wise, Aaron 96. Wise, Aaron is favored with a 60.7% win probability. The spread is -0.24.

Hadwin, Adam
-0.81
Strokes Gained / Round
VS H2H • Biltmore Championship Asheville
Wise, Aaron
-1.06
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
39.3%
60.7%
Hadwin, AdamWise, Aaron
-104
Best Odds
FINALHadwin, Adam (T28) def Wise, Aaron (T50)

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

Wise, Aaron
8996103
Hadwin, Adam
243138

Tournament Context

Event
Biltmore Championship Asheville
Course
The Cliffs at Walnut Cove
Field
132 players

Player Profile — Wise, Aaron

Strokes Gained
-1.06/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.198 SG adj
Expected Finish
96th / 132

Matchup Analysis

Wise, Aaron
-1.06 SG
EF 96th
Skill Gap
-0.24 SG/round
tight skill advantage for Hadwin, Adam
Hadwin, Adam
-0.81 SG
EF 31th · Below Avg
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Edge Analysis

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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded GOLF 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the GOLF 2026 season report card.

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