Supernova vs Conviction prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 20,000 game iterations and projects Conviction 0 - Supernova 2. Supernova is favored with a 58.6% win probability. Most likely series score: 2-0 (Best of 3).
Conviction
0
Projected Maps
VS
Bo3 • NACL
Supernova
2
Projected Maps
Series Win Probability
ConvictionSupernova
2-0
Most Likely Score
LOW
Confidence
20,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 44.3% (10,103 games)
Team Profiles
Supernova
Early
60%
Mid
64%
Late
72%
Elo: 1732 · ⚡ Early Aggro · Record: 5-0 (100%)
Conviction
Early
67%
Mid
36%
Late
30%
Elo: 1650 · ⚡ Early Aggro · Record: 0-6 (0%)
Score Distribution
Supernova winsConviction wins
0-2
25.6%
1-2
15.4%
2-0
31.8%
2-1
27.2%
Advantage Breakdown
Draft -0.1%Phase +2.0%Context -1.1%
Key Factors
- Supernova has a moderate rating edge (82 Elo)
Market Odds
Supernova
-106
Edge: +13.9%
Conviction
-114
Edge: -22.3%
🎯 Projection: Supernova ML @ -106 · Edge +13.9%
championship_v2.1 · 20,000 sims · Uncertainty: 0.36
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets League of Legends Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 20,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →