CLE vs DET prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 105.0 - CLE 107.5. CLE is favored with a 56.9% win probability. The spread is -7.5 and the total is 218.5.
DET
105.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 218.5
CLE
107.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETCLE
-7.5
Spread (DET)
218.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.3% (1,196 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
98108117
DET
95105115
Projected
DET 105.0 — CLE 107.5
Actual
DET 113 — CLE 117
Model Projection
ATSGOOD-110
CLE +7.5
+10.0%
Edge
77.0%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
93
Quality
Possession model projects -2.5 margin vs line -7.5
Starting Lineups
CLEHealthy
James Harden23.6PPG4.8RPG8.0APG
Donovan Mitchell27.9PPG4.5RPG5.7APG
Evan Mobley18.2PPG9.0RPG3.6APG
Jarrett Allen15.4PPG8.5RPG1.8APG
Jaylon Tyson13.2PPG5.1RPG2.2APG
DETHealthy
Cade Cunningham23.9PPG5.5RPG9.9APG
Jalen Duren19.5PPG10.5RPG2.0APG
Tobias Harris13.3PPG5.1RPG2.5APG
Duncan Robinson12.2PPG2.7RPG2.1APG
Ausar Thompson9.9PPG5.7RPG3.1APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0YELLOW ZONE56.1% WR (n=8)
Robinson OUT news (2.5-3 pt swing) not yet fully priced into -4.5 line; combined with CLE's matchup edge (O-rtg 117.6 vs DET D-rtg 107.0) and pace advantage, CLE +4.5 is value but away dog ML weakness and data recency uncertainty warrant caution.
Key Factors
- CLE away O-rtg 117.6 vs DET home D-rtg 107.0 = +10.6 edge (MASSIVE matchup advantage for CLE offense)
- Duncan Robinson (DET, 12 PPG starter) reported OUT — ~2.5-3 pt team swing not yet reflected in -4.5 market line
- DET net rtg +7.78 vs CLE +3.79 = 3.99 pt quality gap (material but addressable via matchup)
- CLE pace 101.8 vs DET 99.9 = 1.8 pace advantage (slight boost to CLE's faster offense)
- Spread zone (away underdog, 56.1% WR) is profitable vs ML zone (away dog, 24.1% WR) — suggests spread is better market than ML
Risk Factors
- Away dog ML: 24.1% historical WR in exact zone — model may be misestimating CLE's true win probability
- Data freshness: Simulation resimulated=true but resim_reason is EMPTY; Robinson OUT news breaks AFTER likely sim time, creating stale data risk
- Playoff context: This is Game 5 of series (per ESPN); playoff games have momentum carry-over and coaching adjustments not captured in season-long ratings. Prior game results matter.
INJURY IMPACTDATA MISMATCHLINE VALUEAWAY DOG POISONPLAYOFF CONTEXTYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 56.9%
-10.0 pts
Spread
-7.5
-10.0 pts
Total
218.5
-6.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →