CLE vs DET prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 105.0 - CLE 107.5. CLE is favored with a 56.9% win probability. The spread is -7.5 and the total is 218.5.
DET
105.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 218.5
CLE
107.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETCLE
-7.5
Spread (DET)
218.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CLE W4DET W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
98108117
DET
95105115
Projected
DET 105.0 — CLE 107.5
Actual
DET 113 — CLE 117
Pick Results
Jalen Duren OVER 21.5 pranba_player_points_rebounds_assistsLOSS-1.50u
Dennis Schroder OVER 4.5 pointsnba_player_pointsWIN+0.55u
Jarrett Allen OVER 11.5 pointsnba_player_pointsWIN+1.21u
Model Projection
ATSGOOD-110
CLE +7.5
+10.0%
Edge
77.0%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
93
Quality
Possession model projects -2.5 margin vs line -7.5
Starting Lineups
CLEHealthy
James Harden23.6PPG4.8RPG8.0APG
Donovan Mitchell27.9PPG4.5RPG5.7APG
Evan Mobley18.2PPG9.0RPG3.6APG
Jarrett Allen15.4PPG8.5RPG1.8APG
Jaylon Tyson13.2PPG5.1RPG2.2APG
DETHealthy
Cade Cunningham23.9PPG5.5RPG9.9APG
Jalen Duren19.5PPG10.5RPG2.0APG
Tobias Harris13.3PPG5.1RPG2.5APG
Duncan Robinson12.2PPG2.7RPG2.1APG
Ausar Thompson9.9PPG5.7RPG3.1APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0YELLOW ZONE56.1% WR (n=8)
Robinson OUT news (2.5-3 pt swing) not yet fully priced into -4.5 line; combined with CLE's matchup edge (O-rtg 117.6 vs DET D-rtg 107.0) and pace advantage, CLE +4.5 is value but away dog ML weakness and data recency uncertainty warrant caution.
Key Factors
- CLE away O-rtg 117.6 vs DET home D-rtg 107.0 = +10.6 edge (MASSIVE matchup advantage for CLE offense)
- Duncan Robinson (DET, 12 PPG starter) reported OUT — ~2.5-3 pt team swing not yet reflected in -4.5 market line
- DET net rtg +7.78 vs CLE +3.79 = 3.99 pt quality gap (material but addressable via matchup)
- CLE pace 101.8 vs DET 99.9 = 1.8 pace advantage (slight boost to CLE's faster offense)
- Spread zone (away underdog, 56.1% WR) is profitable vs ML zone (away dog, 24.1% WR) — suggests spread is better market than ML
Risk Factors
- Away dog ML: 24.1% historical WR in exact zone — model may be misestimating CLE's true win probability
- Data freshness: Simulation resimulated=true but resim_reason is EMPTY; Robinson OUT news breaks AFTER likely sim time, creating stale data risk
- Playoff context: This is Game 5 of series (per ESPN); playoff games have momentum carry-over and coaching adjustments not captured in season-long ratings. Prior game results matter.
INJURY IMPACTDATA MISMATCHLINE VALUEAWAY DOG POISONPLAYOFF CONTEXTYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 56.9%
-10.0 pts
Spread
-7.5
-10.0 pts
Total
218.5
-6.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →