IND vs CLE prediction for April 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 117.8 - IND 114.2. CLE is favored with a 59.9% win probability. The spread is -16.5 and the total is 239.5.
CLE
117.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 239.5
IND
114.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEIND
-16.5
Spread (CLE)
239.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,007 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
IND
104114124
CLE
108118128
Model Projection
MLELITE+980
IND ML
+30.9%
Edge
40.1%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Model gives IND 40% win prob
Against the Spread
IND ATS
-12.9 pts edge | 81% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
None 239.5
-7.6 pts edge | 64% under
PASS
Starting Lineups
IND10 OUT
Jalen Slawson5.7PPG4.4RPG2.7APG
Jay Huff9.5PPG3.9RPG1.4APG
Micah Potter9.0PPG4.4RPG1.4APG
Ethan Thompson5.7PPG1.9RPG1.5APG
Quenton Jackson8.5PPG2.2RPG2.5APG
CLE5 OUT
James Harden23.6PPG4.9RPG8.1APG
Donovan Mitchell27.7PPG4.5RPG5.7APG
Dennis Schroder10.8PPG2.7RPG4.8APG
Max Strus13.7PPG5.9RPG1.9APG
Keon Ellis6.5PPG1.8RPG0.9APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 59.9%
-12.9 pts
Spread
-16.5
-12.9 pts
Total
239.5
-7.6 pts
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →