Sevilla vs Oviedo prediction for April 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Oviedo 1.19 - Sevilla 1.34. Oviedo is favored with a 64.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.5..
Oviedo
1.19
Projected Goals
VS
2.5 total
Sevilla
1.34
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
OviedoDrawSevilla
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 87.9% (630 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Sevilla
0.61.32.1
Oviedo
0.41.22.0
Expected Goals (xG)
Oviedo1.17
Sevilla1.31
12.6Shots14.1
4.6On Target5.2
5.0Corners5.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
93.3%
Over 1.5
72.5%
Over 2.5
25.9%
Over 3.5
13.8%
Under 2.5
74.2%
BTTS
31.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.8%
0-1
10.5%
1-0
10.3%
0-0
9.9%
1-2
7.9%
Match Context
LALMedium
Oviedo
1.20
Draw
5.46
Sevilla
25.23
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Oviedo 64.4%
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Total
2.5
+391.7 pts
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →