Soccer

Celta Vigo vs Valencia Prediction

April 5, 2026

5,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Celta Vigo vs Valencia prediction for April 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Valencia 1.32 - Celta Vigo 1.35. Celta Vigo is favored with a 68.1% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.7..

Valencia
1.32
Projected Goals
VS 2.7 total
Celta Vigo
1.35
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
16.0%
16%
68.1%
ValenciaDrawCelta Vigo
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 94.5% (630 games)

Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile

Celta Vigo
0.61.42.1
Valencia
0.51.32.1

Expected Goals (xG)

Valencia1.33
Celta Vigo1.34
14.2Shots14.3
5.2On Target5.2
5.4Corners5.4

Goal Probabilities

Over 0.5
94.4%
Over 1.5
75.1%
Over 2.5
29.0%
Over 3.5
24.6%
Under 2.5
71.0%
BTTS
49.5%

Most Likely Scores

1-1
13.6%
0-1
9.9%
1-0
9.9%
0-0
9.3%
1-2
8.0%

Match Context

LALMedium
Valencia
18.06
Draw
4.07
Celta Vigo
1.33

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Celta Vigo 68.1%
--
Total
2.7
+188.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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