SAS vs OKC prediction for May 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OKC 109.6 - SAS 104.9. OKC is favored with a 63.4% win probability. The spread is 5.5 and the total is 218.5.
OKC
109.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 218.5
SAS
104.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
OKCSAS
+5.5
Spread (OKC)
218.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.2% (1,196 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
SAS
95105115
OKC
100110120
Projected
OKC 109.6 — SAS 104.9
Actual
OKC 103 — SAS 111
Model Projection
ATSSTRONG-110
OKC +5.5
+10.2%
Edge
77.3%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
93
Quality
Possession model projects +4.7 margin vs line 5.5
Starting Lineups
SAS1 OUT
De'Aaron Fox18.6PPG3.8RPG6.2APG
Devin Vassell13.9PPG4.0RPG2.5APG
Stephon Castle16.7PPG5.3RPG7.4APG
Victor Wembanyama25.0PPG11.5RPG3.1APG
Julian Champagnie11.1PPG5.8RPG1.5APG
OKC3 OUT
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander31.1PPG4.3RPG6.6APG
Chet Holmgren17.1PPG8.9RPG1.7APG
Luguentz Dort8.3PPG3.6RPG1.2APG
Cason Wallace8.6PPG3.1RPG2.6APG
Isaiah Hartenstein9.2PPG9.4RPG3.5APG
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OKC 63.4%
+10.2 pts
Spread
+5.5
+10.2 pts
Total
218.5
-4.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →