New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears prediction for October 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Chicago Bears 23.0 - New England Patriots 22.8. Chicago Bears is favored with a 50.5% win probability. The spread is -3.0 and the total is 50.5.
Chicago Bears
23.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 50.5
New England Patriots
22.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
Chicago BearsNew England Patriots
-3.0
Spread (Chicago Bears)
50.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 46.7% (424 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
New England Patriots
162330
Chicago Bears
162330
Market Lines
Spread
Chicago Bears -3.0
Total
50.5
Game Conditions
Clear
56°F5 mph wind
Model Edge
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NFL Football Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NFL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NFL 2026 season report card.