FLA vs CAR prediction for September 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CAR 3.97 - FLA 2.38. CAR is favored with a 59.9% win probability. The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
CAR
3.97
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
FLA
2.38
Projected Score
Win Probability
CARFLA
-1.5
Spread (CAR)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (1,117 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
FLA
1.32.43.5
CAR
2.94.05.1
Game Odds
CAR ML
-125
FLA ML
+105
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Goalie Matchup
Jacob Markstrom
23-193.07 GAA88.3% SV
Brandon Bussi
31-62.47 GAA89.4% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 73.4% – 74.9% home win probability
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.