FINAL: SJS 4 — FLA 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SJS 3.33 - FLA 3.2 (FLA at 50.4% win probability). FLA wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.5.
SJS
3.33
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
FLA
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
SJSFLA
+1.5
Spread (SJS)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
FLA L5SJS
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.4% (1,184 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
FLA
2.13.24.3
SJS
2.23.34.4
Projected
SJS 3.33 — FLA 3.2
Actual
SJS 4 — FLA 3
Pick Results
SJS MLmlWIN+0.60u
Game Odds
SJS ML
+124
FLA ML
-148
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
SJS Edge
+5.0%
FLA Edge
-9.3%
Projected Total
6.53
+0.03 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Jacob Markstrom
23-190.00 GAA100.0% SV
Yaroslav Askarov
21-203.63 GAA88.3% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 51.3% – 53.0% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Coin-flip matchup with model uncertainty (FLA slight favorite away at +0.45 edge, SJS unconfirmed goalies, both balanced mid-tier teams). Market line -148 FLA away favorite is reasonable but weak category (away favorite) — avoid.
Key Factors
- Unconfirmed goalies: Akira Schmid (FLA, UNK tier) vs Yaroslav Askarov (SJS, UNK tier) — no goalie edge
- Balanced teams: FLA 3.02 GF/3.15 GA vs SJS 3.06 GF/3.29 GA — nearly identical profiles
- Away favorite trap: FLA -148 away is 59.7% probability, but away favorites underperform historically
- Tight model edge: +0.495% edge for FLA is sub-noise, market has much stronger conviction at -148
Risk Factors
- SJS home ice underrated: 0.25 goal HIA advantage helps SJS neutralize FLA
- Early season variance: Both teams unproven this season, model averages are unreliable
- Market conviction strong: -148 suggests sharp money on FLA, but we lack independent confirmation
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
FLA 50.4%
+5.0 pts
Spread
+1.5
+5.0 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.