PHI vs TBL prediction for October 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TBL 3.78 - PHI 2.25. TBL is favored with a 62.8% win probability.
TBL
3.78
Projected Score
VS
PHI
2.25
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBLPHI
N/A
Spread
N/A
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.9% (1,218 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
1.22.23.3
TBL
2.73.84.9
Projected
TBL 3.78 — PHI 2.25
Actual
TBL 4 — PHI 1
Goalie Matchup
Joseph Woll
15-162.87 GAA92.9% SV
Andrei Vasilevskiy
39-152.59 GAA88.9% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 73.1% – 74.6% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.