Spain vs France prediction for July 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects France 0.97 - Spain 2.29. Spain is favored with a 58.3% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.3..
France
0.97
Projected Goals
VS
3.3 total
Spain
2.29
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
FranceDrawSpain
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 88.0% (1,138 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Spain
1.52.33.1
France
0.21.01.7
Projected
France 0.97 — Spain 2.29
Actual
France 0 — Spain 2
Expected Goals (xG)
France0.97
Spain2.29
21.2Shots18.7
7.7On Target6.7
6.7Corners6.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
99.2%
Over 1.5
79.3%
Over 2.5
61.3%
Over 3.5
45.2%
Under 2.5
38.7%
BTTS
63.8%
Most Likely Scores
0-2
10.4%
1-2
10.1%
1-1
9.5%
0-1
8.4%
0-3
8.0%
Match Context
WCCritical
France
5.69
Draw
3.57
Spain
1.70
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2YELLOW ZONE42.0% WR (n=70)
Model shows zero to negative edge on all ML markets (France -2.24%, Spain +0.01%) and insufficient edge on totals (+1.37%, below 8% threshold); ML is red-zoned (42-34% WR by side), draw probability (32.6%) kills any ML upside, and lineups are unconfirmed in a critical-stakes tournament match.
Key Factors
- France ML edge: -2.24% (model 36.5% vs market 38.74%) — MARKET IS RIGHT, no edge for us
- Spain ML edge: +0.01% (model 30.9% vs market 30.89%) — ZERO edge, coin flip
- Draw probability (model): 32.6% — means true ML win conditioning is only 36.5% / 67.4% = 54.2% vs 58% market-implied, but 32.6% of bets are automatic LOSSES
- Home ML zone: YELLOW at 42.0% WR (n=70) — below 50%, consistent with broader home ML weakness
- Away ML zone: RED at 34.3% WR (n=70) — catastrophic, our worst soccer category; auto-disabled status reinforces avoidance
Risk Factors
- Draw rate at 32.6% is catastrophic for ML: Every draw is an automatic loss. Effective ML win rate penalizes by 32.6 percentage points, making even 'favorable' 36.5% France odds dangerous.
- Lineups NOT confirmed (flag in simulation) — we are betting blind on team selection and late-minute tactical changes in a critical knockout match. No injury data post-2026-05-07.
- Recent soccer performance is declining: 14d WR 33.3%, 30d WR 38.46%, 7d WR 25%. Model is misfiring or market is adapting. Any marginal edge is likely illusory.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Spain 58.3%
--
Total
3.3
+12.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →