Andrej Nedic vs Antoine Ghibaudo prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Antoine Ghibaudo 0 - Andrej Nedic 0. Antoine Ghibaudo is favored with a 65.9% win probability.
Antoine Ghibaudo
1637
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Andrej Nedic
1466
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Antoine GhibaudoAndrej Nedic
Hard
Surface
ATP Challenger Shymkent - QF
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.4% (1,401 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Challenger Shymkent - QF
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Andrej Nedic
Antoine Ghibaudo
Antoine Ghibaudo leads by 172 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Andrej Nedic SPW
59.3%
Below tour avg
Antoine Ghibaudo SPW
64.1%
Above tour avg
● Antoine Ghibaudo has a significant serve advantage (+4.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andrej Nedic ML
-222
Model: 34%
Edge: -34.9%
Antoine Ghibaudo ML
+195
Model: 66%
Edge: +32.0%
Model Projection
Antoine Ghibaudo ML +195 · +32.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Antoine Ghibaudo holds a commanding 172-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Antoine Ghibaudo has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Antoine Ghibaudo at 66%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Antoine Ghibaudo 65.9%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →