Andres Martin vs Moez Echargui prediction for July 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Moez Echargui 0 - Andres Martin 0. Moez Echargui is favored with a 52.8% win probability.
Moez Echargui
1603
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Andres Martin
1542
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Moez EcharguiAndres Martin
Hard
Surface
Mubadala Citi DC Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.9% (13,991 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Mubadala Citi DC Open
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Andres Martin
Moez Echargui
Moez Echargui leads by 61 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Andres Martin SPW
62.8%
Below tour avg
Moez Echargui SPW
64.1%
Above tour avg
● Moez Echargui has a slight serve edge (+1.2%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Moez Echargui has a moderate 61-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Moez Echargui has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.