Andrey Rublev vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli prediction for May 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0 - Andrey Rublev 0. Andrey Rublev is favored with a 70.7% win probability.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
1498
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Andrey Rublev
1674
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Camilo Ugo CarabelliAndrey Rublev
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 69.9% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Andrey Rublev
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Andrey Rublev leads by 176 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Andrey Rublev SPW
63.9%
Above tour avg
Camilo Ugo Carabelli SPW
58.7%
Below tour avg
● Andrey Rublev has a significant serve advantage (+5.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andrey Rublev ML
-331
Model: 71%
Edge: -6.1%
Camilo Ugo Carabelli ML
+296
Model: 29%
Edge: +4.1%
Key Matchup Factors
- Andrey Rublev holds a commanding 176-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Andrey Rublev has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Andrey Rublev at 71%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Andrey Rublev 70.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.