Andrey Rublev vs Luciano Darderi prediction for July 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Luciano Darderi 0 - Andrey Rublev 0. Andrey Rublev is favored with a 66.5% win probability.
Luciano Darderi
1476
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Andrey Rublev
1681
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Luciano DarderiAndrey Rublev
Hard
Surface
Bastad
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.7% (13,005 games)
Pick Results
Andrey Rublev -1.5 games -115spreadLOSS-0.50u
Match Context
Tournament
Bastad
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Andrey Rublev
Luciano Darderi
Andrey Rublev leads by 206 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Andrey Rublev SPW
68.8%
Above tour avg
Luciano Darderi SPW
62.6%
Below tour avg
● Andrey Rublev has a significant serve advantage (+6.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andrey Rublev ML
-138
Model: 66%
Edge: +8.5%
Luciano Darderi ML
+125
Model: 34%
Edge: -11.0%
Model Projection
Andrey Rublev ML -138 · +8.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Andrey Rublev holds a commanding 206-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Andrey Rublev has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Andrey Rublev at 66%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Andrey Rublev 66.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.