Daniel Altmaier vs Raphael Collignon prediction for July 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Raphael Collignon 0 - Daniel Altmaier 0. Raphael Collignon is favored with a 56.6% win probability.
Raphael Collignon
1623
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Daniel Altmaier
1509
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Raphael CollignonDaniel Altmaier
Hard
Surface
Generali Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.8% (13,005 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Generali Open
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Daniel Altmaier
Raphael Collignon
Raphael Collignon leads by 114 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Daniel Altmaier SPW
63.5%
Below tour avg
Raphael Collignon SPW
65.7%
Above tour avg
● Raphael Collignon has a slight serve edge (+2.2%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Raphael Collignon holds a commanding 114-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Raphael Collignon has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Raphael Collignon 56.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.