Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Vit Kopriva prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Vit Kopriva 0 - Felix Auger-Aliassime 0. Felix Auger-Aliassime is favored with a 51.2% win probability.
Vit Kopriva
1501
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Felix Auger-Aliassime
1650
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Vit KoprivaFelix Auger-Aliassime
Clay
Surface
Bitpanda Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.3% (2,277 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Bitpanda Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Vit Kopriva
Felix Auger-Aliassime leads by 149 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Felix Auger-Aliassime SPW
59.0%
Below tour avg
Vit Kopriva SPW
60.1%
Below tour avg
● Vit Kopriva has a slight serve edge (+1.1%)
Key Matchup Factors
- Felix Auger-Aliassime holds a commanding 149-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Vit Kopriva has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Felix Auger-Aliassime 51.2%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →